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CMU – SuperMegaUltraVis
e.g. “University of Maryland – SuperVis”

VAST 2008 Challenge
Mini Challenge 2:  Migrant Boats (geo-temporal analysis)

Authors and Affiliations:

e.g. Tom Jones, University of Maryland, Jones@cs.umd.edu  [PRIMARY contact]
       Mary Smith, University of Massachusetts, Lowell
      Paul White, University of Maryland [Faculty advisor]
      (NOTE: the PRIMARY contact needs to be joinable by email for a week after submission and again before the Sept. 1st deadline for camera ready materials)

Student team: YES

Tool(s):

Google Earth was used with custom scripts to produce the visualizations of the dataset.  The R statistics language was used to produce the time series plots.

 

 

Two Page Summary:   YES or NO  (leave only your choice, the Two-Page summary is not mandatory)

 

        Add link to the pdf document if you are providing a summary

 

 

ANSWERS:

Boat-1 Characterize the choice of landing sites and their evolution over the three years.

Detailed Answer:

 

The evolution of landing sites over the observed period is characterized primarily by a transition from direct routes across the channel to longer journeys landing further north in Florida.  This is evident both in the following animation (Figure 1) and the subsequent screenshots.  The animation shows a moving two month window, with successful landings shown as red circles and captures as green squares.  Initially, the landings (red circles) are concentrated around the portion of mainland Florida that is closest to Isla Del Sueño.  However, as time progresses, the landings become increasingly dispersed geographically.  In particular, numerous boats landed much further north along both coasts of Florida during the final year.  Some boats even landed on the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico.

 

Figure 1:  Animation of Landings over Time

 

Figure 2 shows a static representation of the changes over time.  Each interdiction, whether landing or capture, is colored along a scale from red to blue according to the date of the interdiction.  Earlier interdictions are bluer, whereas more recent interdictions are redder.  The change in landing sights can be seen in the dense concentration of blue interdictions in the immediate vicinity of Isla Del Sueño.  No blue interdictions are seen anywhere outside of this region and although some purple interdictions can be seen somewhat further from the island, the interdictions particularly along the east coast are entirely red.  This indicates a gradual transition from faster, more direct routes, to longer trips further along the coast.  Alternatively, Figures 4, 5 and 6 show the landing sites during 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively.  These images also give an impression of northward expansion, with the most dramatic changes coming in 2007, where, for the first time, the southern tip of Florida does not absorb the majority of landings.  These changes may have been a reaction to changes in the interdiction strategy, as described in Problem 2.  It is interesting that although landing sites slowly move north along the west coast of Florida during 2006, it is only during 2007 that boats begin to land on the west coast north of Fort Lauderdale.  This may or may not be related to the Paraiso Movement.  However, because so many boats began to land on the east coast of Florida during 2007, it is not possible to isolate any single landing in the Miami area as being particularly suspicious.

 

Figure 3: All Attempts Colored by Date (Circle=Landing, Square=Capture)

 

 

Figure 4: Landing Sites (2005)

 

 

Figure 5: Landing Sites (2006)

 

Figure 6: Landing Sites (2007)

 

Boat-2  Characterize the geographical patterns of interdiction over the three years

Short Answer:

 

The interdiction behavior closely matches the landing behavior over the target period.  This can be seen in the animation over time (Figure 1), as well as Figures 7 and 8.  Figure 7 shows the interdictions occurring in the first half of the time period (January, 2005 – June, 2006), whereas Figure 8 shows interdictions in the second half (June, 2006 - January, 2007).  As in the landing sites, there is a noticeable transition from interdictions occurring solely in the area around Isla Del Sueño and the southern tip of Florida to a broader focus on the Florida coastline.  In particular, the second half of the time period shows an increased amount of activity off the southwest coast of Florida, in the area just south of Fort Myers, although interdictions occurred as far north as Tampa.  There are much fewer interdictions along the east coast of Florida, especially north of Miami.

 

 

 

Figure 7: Interdictions (January, 2005 – June, 2006)

 

 

Figure 8: Interdictions (June, 2006 - January, 2007)

 

 

 

 

Boat- 3 What is the successful landing rate over the time period?

Short Answer:

 

In addition to a general increase in the number of successful landings over time, there are strong seasonal influences, with most attempts occurring over the summer months.   Both effects can be seen in the attached video.  The seasonal effects are most evident towards the end of the time period, with clear lulls in the winter of 2006-2007 and in late 2007.  The general increase over time can also be seen, as the number of dots rises dramatically in the final summer.  Figures 7, 8 and 9 show landing rate, number of landings, and total number of journeys, respectively.  All data are aggregated by month.  The rate of successful landings does not appear to change dramatically over time, except for seasonal variations.  Even these are likely due to very few attempted journeys during the winter months.

Figure 9: Success Rate Over Time

 

 

Figure 10: Total Successes Over Time

 

 

Figure 11: Total Attempts Over Time